Auxerre v Le Mans: analysis and our pick
Ligue 1 · today 18:15 · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Auxerre in good form
Auxerre have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Le Havre and a 1–4 away defeat at Rennes. Le Mans have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Toulouse and a 1–3 away defeat at Paris Saint Germain.
The head-to-head favours Auxerre
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Auxerre, 1 draw, 1 for Le Mans, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Auxerre 3–2 Le Mans (1 Aug 2020).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 75%. Auxerre score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Le Mans 1.2 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.4 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Auxerre · 48%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Auxerre have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Auxerre — last game: Away to Le Havre (3-1) they had 48% of the shots (13 to 14, on target 6-6). From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Le Mans — last game: Against Toulouse (0-3) they had 46% of the shots (11 to 13, on target 1-5). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 52% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.10 → 2.20 (+4.8%, drifting) · 2 (Le Mans) 3.40 → 3.25 (-4.4%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.73 → 1.67 (-3.5%, backed) · 1 (Auxerre) 2.05 → 2.10 (+2.4%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.