Atalanta v Frosinone: analysis and our pick
Serie A · today 16:00 · New Balance Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Atalanta looking for a response
Atalanta have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Ajax and a 2–3 away defeat at AC Milan. Frosinone have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–2 home win over Sassuolo and a 0–3 away defeat at Napoli.
The head-to-head favours Atalanta
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Atalanta, 1 draw, 1 for Frosinone, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Atalanta 5–0 Frosinone (15 Jan 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Atalanta score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game, Frosinone 1.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.1 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Atalanta · 48%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Atalanta have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Atalanta — last game: Away to Ajax (0-2) they had 43% of the shots (15 to 20, on target 0-6) and 38% possession. No shots on target, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Frosinone — last game: Against Sassuolo (4-2) they had 60% of the shots (21 to 14, on target 10-6). From 10 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.75 → 3.25 (+18.2%, drifting) · Under 2.5 3.00 → 3.40 (+13.3%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.80 → 2.00 (+11.1%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.00 → 1.80 (-10%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.