Angers v Lorient: analysis and our pick
Ligue 1 · today 18:15 · Stade Raymond Kopa. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Angers looking for a response
Angers have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–5 home defeat to Marseille and a 1–5 away defeat at Stade Brestois 29. Lorient have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Monaco and a 1–0 home win over Paris FC.
The head-to-head favours Angers
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Angers, 0 draws, 2 for Lorient, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Angers 2–1 Lorient (8 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Angers score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game, Lorient 1.2 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.5 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Lorient · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Lorient have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Angers — last game: Against Marseille (2-5) they had 34% of the shots (11 to 21, on target 3-8). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 5 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 30% of the shots on target. They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Lorient — last game: Against Monaco (1-0) they had 38% of the shots (9 to 15, on target 3-4). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target. They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.40 → 3.50 (+2.9%, drifting) · Over 1.5 1.33 → 1.30 (-2.3%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.