1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen: analysis and our pick
Bundesliga · tomorrow 16:30 · Prezero Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
1899 Hoffenheim looking for a response
1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Lyon and a 2–1 away win at Borussia Monchengladbach. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at OFI and a 2–1 home win over Freiburg.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 55%. 1899 Hoffenheim score 2.0 and concede 2.0 a game, Bayer Leverkusen 2.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 2.4 = 4.3 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Bayer Leverkusen · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 80%). Most likely score: 1–2.
Why these picks?
Bayer Leverkusen have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (7%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
1899 Hoffenheim — last game: Against Lyon (3-0) they had 72% of the shots (21 to 8, on target 8-2) and 44% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Bayer Leverkusen — last game: Away to OFI (2-0) they had 85% of the shots (33 to 6, on target 15-2) and 63% possession. From 15 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 87% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 96% of the pressure → goal on 35′, 37′. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 74% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.