Wolves v Watford: analysis and our pick

Watford have a chance to respond

Wolves have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Portsmouth and a 2–1 away win at Burnley. Watford have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Charlton and a 1–5 away defeat at Cardiff.

The head-to-head favours Wolves

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Wolves, 0 draws, 1 for Watford, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Wolves 4–0 Watford (10 Mar 2022).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. Wolves score 1.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Watford 0.8 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 0.9 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Wolves · 62%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

Wolves have the highest probability (62%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Wolves — last game: Against Portsmouth (1-1) they had 65% of the shots (15 to 8, on target 2-1). From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Watford — last game: Against Charlton (2-0) they had 61% of the shots (22 to 14, on target 10-3). From 10 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3.