Willem II v Cambuur: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · today 19:45 · Koning Willem II Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Willem II looking for a response
Willem II have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Sparta Rotterdam and a 1–3 away defeat at Utrecht. Cambuur have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with AZ Alkmaar and a 1–0 away win at PEC Zwolle.
The head-to-head favours Cambuur
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Willem II, 3 draws, 2 for Cambuur, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Willem II 0–1 Cambuur (12 Dec 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 75%. Willem II score 1.0 and concede 2.6 a game, Cambuur 1.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.7 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Cambuur · 48%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Cambuur have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Willem II — last game: Away to Sparta Rotterdam (2-3) they had 37% of the shots (13 to 22, on target 4-8). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 32% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Cambuur — last game: Against AZ Alkmaar (2-2) they had 61% of the shots (11 to 7, on target 6-4). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Cambuur). Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 5.50 → 5.00 (-9.1%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.50 → 2.40 (-4%, backed) · 1 (Willem II) 2.55 → 2.45 (-3.9%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.62 → 1.57 (-3.1%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.