West Ham v Southampton: analysis and our pick

Southampton have a chance to respond

West Ham have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Swansea and a 6–0 away win at Lincoln. Southampton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Bolton and a 1–0 away win at Norwich.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. West Ham score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Southampton 1.4 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.1 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · West Ham · 53%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

West Ham have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

West Ham — last game: Away to Swansea (1-0) they had 45% of the shots (9 to 11, on target 4-0). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Southampton — last game: Against Bolton (0-0) they had 50% of the shots (14 to 14, on target 2-3). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 15% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.