Valencia v Villarreal: analysis and our pick

Villarreal have a chance to respond

Valencia have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Athletic Club and a 2–2 away draw with Racing Santander. Villarreal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–4 away defeat at Liverpool and a 0–0 home draw with Elche.

The head-to-head favours Villarreal

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Valencia, 2 draws, 3 for Villarreal, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Villarreal 2–1 Valencia (22 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 55%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Valencia score 1.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Villarreal 1.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.6 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Villarreal · 47%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 75%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Villarreal have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Valencia — last game: Against Athletic Club (0-0) they had 64% of the shots (16 to 9, on target 3-2). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Villarreal — last game: Away to Liverpool (3-4) they had 39% of the shots (14 to 22, on target 5-7). From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 4 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Valencia) 3.30 → 3.50 (+6.1%, drifting) · 2 (Villarreal) 2.15 → 2.05 (-4.7%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.33 → 1.28 (-3.8%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.67 → 1.73 (+3.6%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.