Utrecht v PEC Zwolle: analysis and our pick

Utrecht in good form

Utrecht have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at FC Twente and a 3–1 home win over Willem II. PEC Zwolle have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over GO Ahead Eagles and a 0–1 home defeat to Cambuur.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 60%. Utrecht score 2.0 and concede 2.2 a game, PEC Zwolle 1.2 and 2.8. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.9 = 4.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Utrecht · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Utrecht have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Utrecht — last game: Away to FC Twente (2-1) they had 40% of the shots (16 to 24, on target 5-5). From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 37% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. PEC Zwolle — last game: Against GO Ahead Eagles (4-1) they had 51% of the shots (19 to 18, on target 8-6). From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target. They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.