Stoke City v Bristol City: analysis and our pick

Stoke City in good form

Stoke City have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Derby and a 2–3 home defeat to Middlesbrough. Bristol City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Sheffield Utd and a 0–1 home defeat to Blackburn.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. Stoke City score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Bristol City 0.8 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.3 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Stoke City · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Stoke City have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Stoke City — last game: Away to Derby (1-0) they had 41% of the shots (12 to 17, on target 4-3). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Bristol City — last game: Against Sheffield Utd (0-1) they had 32% of the shots (7 to 15, on target 1-2). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs.