ST Mirren v Dundee: analysis and our pick

ST Mirren looking for a response

ST Mirren have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Aberdeen and a 0–5 away defeat at Hearts. Dundee have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Rangers and a 2–1 away win at Falkirk.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 50%. ST Mirren score 0.4 and concede 2.8 a game, Dundee 1.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.8 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Dundee · 53%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Dundee have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

ST Mirren — last game: Away to Aberdeen (1-3) they had 43% of the shots (13 to 17, on target 7-7). From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target. They turn 13% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Dundee — last game: Against Rangers (2-2) they had 33% of the shots (10 to 20, on target 6-9). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.