Sheffield Utd v Derby: analysis and our pick

Sheffield Utd looking for a response

Sheffield Utd have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Bristol City and a 2–3 away defeat at Portsmouth. Derby have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Stoke City and a 1–4 away defeat at QPR.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Sheffield Utd score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Derby 0.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.1 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Sheffield Utd · 49%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Sheffield Utd have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Sheffield Utd — last game: Away to Bristol City (1-0) they had 68% of the shots (15 to 7, on target 2-1). From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Derby — last game: Against Stoke City (0-1) they had 59% of the shots (17 to 12, on target 3-4). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.