SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV: analysis and our pick
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 16:30 · Home Deluxe Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Hamburger SV have a chance to respond
SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Werder Bremen and a 0–2 home defeat to VfB Stuttgart. Hamburger SV have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over VfB Stuttgart and a 3–2 away win at 1899 Hoffenheim.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. SC Paderborn 07 score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Hamburger SV 1.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.5 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · SC Paderborn 07 · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
SC Paderborn 07 have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
SC Paderborn 07 — last game: Away to Werder Bremen (2-2) they had 38% of the shots (11 to 18, on target 4-11). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 11 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 34% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Hamburger SV — last game: Against VfB Stuttgart (1-0) they had 37% of the shots (14 to 24, on target 3-5). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target. They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.