Samsunspor v Amed: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · today 19:00 · Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Samsunspor looking for a response
Samsunspor have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Kasimpasa and a 0–3 home defeat to Trabzonspor. Amed have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Konyaspor and a 2–2 away draw with Gençlerbirliği S.K..
The head-to-head favours Samsunspor
In the last 4 meetings: 2 wins for Samsunspor, 1 draw, 1 for Amed, with 2.3 goals a game. Most recently: Samsunspor 3–0 Amed (19 Feb 2020).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 45%. Samsunspor score 0.4 and concede 2.8 a game, Amed 2.6 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 2.0 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Amed · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Amed have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Samsunspor — last game: Away to Kasimpasa (1-4) they had 21% of the shots (6 to 22, on target 3-8). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 11% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Amed — last game: Against Konyaspor (1-0) they had 72% of the shots (13 to 5, on target 4-2). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Amed) 2.45 → 2.25 (-8.2%, backed) · Over 3.5 3.25 → 3.00 (-7.7%, backed) · 1 (Samsunspor) 2.70 → 2.90 (+7.4%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.53 → 1.62 (+5.9%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.