RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg: analysis and our pick
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 16:30 · Leipzig Red Bull Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
RB Leipzig looking for a response
RB Leipzig have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Real Madrid and a 1–6 away defeat at Bayern Munich. SV Elversberg have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 4–3 home win over FC Augsburg and a 0–1 away defeat at Union Berlin.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 60%. RB Leipzig score 1.8 and concede 2.4 a game, SV Elversberg 1.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.4 + 1.0 = 3.5 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · RB Leipzig · 67%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 2–1.
Why these picks?
RB Leipzig have the highest probability (67%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
RB Leipzig — last game: Away to Real Madrid (1-4) they had 38% of the shots (11 to 18, on target 6-11) and 35% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 11 on target. 17′–30′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 95% of the pressure → conceded on 52′. 60′–75′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. SV Elversberg — last game: Against FC Augsburg (4-3) they had 40% of the shots (19 to 29, on target 8-8). From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 3 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 32% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.