Rayo Vallecano v Elche: analysis and our pick
La Liga · Saturday 24 October 15:00 · Estadio de Vallecas. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Elche have a chance to respond
Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Getafe and a 1–1 away draw with Osasuna. Elche have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Villarreal and a 0–0 home draw with Celta Vigo.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 80%. Rayo Vallecano score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game, Elche 1.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Rayo Vallecano · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Rayo Vallecano have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Rayo Vallecano — last game: Away to Getafe (1-1) they had 66% of the shots (21 to 11, on target 5-4). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Getafe). Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents. Elche — last game: Away to Villarreal (0-0) they had 26% of the shots (7 to 20, on target 1-7). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 7 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 33% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.