Rangers v ST Johnstone: analysis and our pick

Rangers in good form

Rangers have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Dundee and a 3–1 home win over Kilmarnock. ST Johnstone have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Dundee Utd and a 1–0 away win at Aberdeen.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 55%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 50%. Rangers score 2.0 and concede 0.6 a game, ST Johnstone 1.0 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.0 = 2.3 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Rangers · 42%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Rangers have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Rangers — last game: Away to Dundee (2-2) they had 67% of the shots (20 to 10, on target 9-6). From 9 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 65% of the shots and 70% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. ST Johnstone — last game: Against Dundee Utd (1-1) they had 44% of the shots (11 to 14, on target 5-7). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 35% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target. They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs.