Racing Santander v Espanyol: analysis and our pick
La Liga · Saturday 24 October 17:15 · El Sardinero. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Racing Santander looking for a response
Racing Santander have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Osasuna and a 2–2 home draw with Valencia. Espanyol have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Atletico Madrid and a 1–1 away draw with Malaga.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 70%. Racing Santander score 1.2 and concede 3.4 a game, Espanyol 1.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.7 = 3.5 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Racing Santander · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 68%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Racing Santander have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 68% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Racing Santander — last game: Away to Osasuna (0-2) they had 31% of the shots (9 to 20, on target 1-7). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 49% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Espanyol — last game: Against Atletico Madrid (0-1) they had 32% of the shots (9 to 19, on target 1-6). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.