QPR v Swansea: analysis and our pick

Swansea have a chance to respond

QPR have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Birmingham and a 4–1 home win over Derby. Swansea have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to West Ham and a 1–0 away win at Millwall.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. QPR score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game, Swansea 1.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.4 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Swansea · 38%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Swansea have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

QPR — last game: Away to Birmingham (0-3) they had 52% of the shots (12 to 11, on target 4-5). From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Swansea — last game: Against West Ham (0-1) they had 55% of the shots (11 to 9, on target 0-4). No shots on target, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target.