Preston v West Brom: analysis and our pick

Preston looking for a response

Preston have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Wrexham and a 0–4 away defeat at Birmingham. West Brom have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Blackburn and a 2–1 away win at Wrexham.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Preston score 0.6 and concede 2.4 a game, West Brom 1.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.7 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · West Brom · 53%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

West Brom have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Preston — last game: Away to Wrexham (1-4) they had 39% of the shots (11 to 17, on target 1-6). From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 27% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. West Brom — last game: Against Blackburn (3-2) they had 71% of the shots (24 to 10, on target 4-2). From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.