Portsmouth v Millwall: analysis and our pick

Millwall have a chance to respond

Portsmouth have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Wolves and a 1–0 away win at Norwich. Millwall have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Lincoln and a 0–1 home defeat to Swansea.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Portsmouth score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Millwall 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.4 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Portsmouth · 40%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Portsmouth have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Portsmouth — last game: Away to Wolves (1-1) they had 35% of the shots (8 to 15, on target 1-2). From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Millwall — last game: Against Lincoln (2-2) they had 64% of the shots (16 to 9, on target 6-3). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Lincoln). Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.