OH Leuven v Lommel United: analysis and our pick
Jupiler Pro League · today 19:15 · Den Dreef. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Lommel United have a chance to respond
OH Leuven have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Francs Borains and a 1–1 away draw with Union St. Gilloise. Lommel United have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at St. Truiden and a 3–1 away win at SK Beveren.
The head-to-head favours OH Leuven
In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for OH Leuven, 0 draws, 1 for Lommel United, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: OH Leuven 5–1 Lommel United (15 Jul 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. OH Leuven score 1.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Lommel United 1.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.3 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · OH Leuven · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
OH Leuven have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
OH Leuven — last game: Away to Union St. Gilloise (1-1) they had 44% of the shots (14 to 18, on target 2-2). From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Union St. Gilloise). Over the last 4 they averaged 48% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Lommel United — last game: Away to St. Truiden (1-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 42% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.50 → 5.00 (+11.1%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.25 → 2.38 (+5.8%, drifting) · 2 (Lommel United) 3.50 → 3.70 (+5.7%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.50 → 2.38 (-4.8%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.