Napoli v AS Roma: analysis and our pick

AS Roma have a chance to respond

Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–3 home win over Bodo/Glimt and a 0–1 away defeat at Venezia. AS Roma have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Slovan Bratislava and a 2–0 home win over Genoa.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game, AS Roma 2.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.6 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · AS Roma · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

AS Roma have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Napoli — last game: Against Bodo/Glimt (4-3) they had 55% of the shots (17 to 14, on target 8-6). From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 3 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. AS Roma — last game: Against Slovan Bratislava (4-0) they had 96% of the shots (26 to 1, on target 10-0). From 10 shots on target they scored 4, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.