Lincoln v Burnley: analysis and our pick
Championship · Saturday 24 October 17:00 · Sincil Bank. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Lincoln looking for a response
Lincoln have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Millwall and a 0–6 home defeat to West Ham. Burnley have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Wolves and a 2–2 home draw with Charlton.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Lincoln score 0.8 and concede 2.6 a game, Burnley 1.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 2.0 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Burnley · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Burnley have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Lincoln — last game: Away to Millwall (2-2) they had 36% of the shots (9 to 16, on target 3-6). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Lincoln). Over the last 5 they averaged 36% of the shots and 30% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 2 theirs. Burnley — last game: Against Wolves (1-2) they had 43% of the shots (15 to 20, on target 4-8). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.