Lazio v Parma: analysis and our pick
Serie A · today 21:45 · Stadio Olimpico. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Lazio in good form
Lazio have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Juventus and a 3–1 home win over Monza. Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Torino and a 0–3 away defeat at Inter.
The head-to-head favours Lazio
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Lazio, 2 draws, 1 for Parma, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Lazio 1–1 Parma (4 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 35%. Lazio score 2.6 and concede 0.8 a game, Parma 0.8 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 0.8 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Lazio · 66%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 2–0.
Why these picks?
Lazio have the highest probability (66%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Lazio — last game: Away to Juventus (3-0) they had 53% of the shots (9 to 8, on target 3-2). From 3 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 108% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Parma — last game: Against Torino (0-3) they had 73% of the shots (24 to 9, on target 7-3). From 7 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Parma) 9.00 → 7.00 (-22.2%, backed) · X (draw) 5.00 → 4.33 (-13.4%, backed) · 1 (Lazio) 1.33 → 1.48 (+11.3%, drifting) · Over 3.5 3.20 → 3.40 (+6.2%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.