KVC Westerlo v SK Beveren: analysis and our pick

KVC Westerlo in good form

KVC Westerlo have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Patro Eisden and a 5–1 home win over Antwerp. SK Beveren have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Habay-la-Neuve and a 1–3 home defeat to Lommel United.

The head-to-head favours SK Beveren

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for KVC Westerlo, 2 draws, 2 for SK Beveren, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: SK Beveren 3–1 KVC Westerlo (1 Nov 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 40%. KVC Westerlo score 3.4 and concede 0.6 a game, SK Beveren 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 2.3 + 1.5 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · KVC Westerlo · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

KVC Westerlo have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

KVC Westerlo — last game: Against Antwerp (5-1) they had 52% of the shots (14 to 13, on target 6-3). From 6 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Antwerp). Over the last 4 they averaged 56% of the shots and 68% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. SK Beveren — last game: Against Lommel United (1-3) they had 32% of the shots (9 to 19, on target 3-7). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 7 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 38% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target. They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (SK Beveren) 3.20 → 3.50 (+9.4%, drifting) · 1 (KVC Westerlo) 1.95 → 1.83 (-6.2%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.20 → 2.10 (-4.5%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.50 → 2.60 (+4%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.