Independiente F.b.c. v Paraguari AC: analysis and our pick

Paraguari AC have a chance to respond

Independiente F.b.c. have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Tacuary and a 3–0 home win over Atlético Tembetary. Paraguari AC have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Fernando De La Mora and a 4–2 away win at Tacuary.

The head-to-head favours Paraguari AC

In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Independiente F.b.c., 0 draws, 1 for Paraguari AC, with 5.0 goals a game. Most recently: Paraguari AC 3–2 Independiente F.b.c. (18 Jul 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. Independiente F.b.c. score 2.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Paraguari AC 2.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.4 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Independiente F.b.c. · 38%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Independiente F.b.c. have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Independiente F.b.c. — last game: Against Atlético Tembetary (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Paraguari AC — last game: Away to Atlético Tembetary (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.