Gimnasia M. v Platense: analysis and our pick

Gimnasia M. looking for a response

Gimnasia M. have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Velez Sarsfield and a 1–0 home win over Newells Old Boys. Platense have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Lanus and a 1–1 home draw with Argentinos JRS.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 40%. Gimnasia M. score 0.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Platense 0.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 0.9 = 1.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Gimnasia M. · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 71%). Most likely score: 0–0.

Why these picks?

Gimnasia M. have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 71% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (17%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Gimnasia M. — last game: Away to Velez Sarsfield (0-1) they had 35% of the shots (11 to 20, on target 2-6). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 10% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Platense — last game: Against Lanus (0-1) they had 63% of the shots (15 to 9, on target 3-3). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.