Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin: analysis and our pick

Sarmiento Junin have a chance to respond

Gimnasia L.P. have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Huracan and a 1–1 home draw with Atletico Tucuman. Sarmiento Junin have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Barracas Central and a 1–1 home draw with River Plate.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 80%. Gimnasia L.P. score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Sarmiento Junin 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.1 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Gimnasia L.P. · 48%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Gimnasia L.P. have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Gimnasia L.P. — last game: Away to Huracan (2-1) they had 38% of the shots (11 to 18, on target 6-4). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Sarmiento Junin — last game: Against Barracas Central (1-1) they had 28% of the shots (8 to 21, on target 2-6). From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 36% of the shots and 32% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.