Gil Vicente v FC Porto: analysis and our pick

Gil Vicente in good form

Gil Vicente have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Braga and a 3–2 away win at União Santarém. FC Porto have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to PSV Eindhoven and a 2–3 away defeat at Real Betis.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Gil Vicente score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, FC Porto 2.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.6 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · FC Porto · 47%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

FC Porto have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Gil Vicente — last game: Away to Braga (2-1) they had 36% of the shots (10 to 18, on target 4-6). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 45% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. FC Porto — last game: Against PSV Eindhoven (0-1) they had 44% of the shots (14 to 18, on target 4-3). From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.