Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · Saturday 24 October 16:00 · Gaziantep Stadyumu. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Gaziantep FK looking for a response
Gaziantep FK have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Istanbul Basaksehir and a 0–3 home defeat to Çorum FK. Erzurumspor FK have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Eyupspor and a 0–0 away draw with Alanyaspor.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 35%. Gaziantep FK score 1.0 and concede 1.8 a game, Erzurumspor FK 0.8 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.0 = 2.1 goals.
Our pick
Draw (X) · 34%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
The 1-X-2 probabilities are close and the draw comes out on top in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Gaziantep FK — last game: Away to Istanbul Basaksehir (1-2) they had 46% of the shots (12 to 14, on target 4-6). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Erzurumspor FK — last game: Against Eyupspor (2-0) they had 47% of the shots (7 to 8, on target 3-3). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target. They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 18% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.