FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen: analysis and our pick
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 16:30 · MEWA Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
FSV Mainz 05 in good form
FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Schalke 04 and a 3–4 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen. Werder Bremen have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with SC Paderborn 07 and a 2–2 away draw with Borussia Dortmund.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 55%. FSV Mainz 05 score 2.4 and concede 2.0 a game, Werder Bremen 1.6 and 2.8. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.8 = 4.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · FSV Mainz 05 · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
FSV Mainz 05 have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
FSV Mainz 05 — last game: Away to Schalke 04 (1-0) they had 53% of the shots (10 to 9, on target 6-3). From 6 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Werder Bremen — last game: Against SC Paderborn 07 (2-2) they had 62% of the shots (18 to 11, on target 11-4). From 11 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 61% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.