FC Augsburg v Union Berlin: analysis and our pick

Union Berlin have a chance to respond

FC Augsburg have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–4 away defeat at SV Elversberg and a 2–2 home draw with Bayern Munich. Union Berlin have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Borussia Dortmund and a 1–0 home win over SV Elversberg.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 60%. FC Augsburg score 2.2 and concede 2.6 a game, Union Berlin 0.6 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.3 + 1.5 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · FC Augsburg · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 74%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

FC Augsburg have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 74% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FC Augsburg — last game: Away to SV Elversberg (3-4) they had 60% of the shots (29 to 19, on target 8-8). From 8 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 4 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 36% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. Union Berlin — last game: Against Borussia Dortmund (0-0) they had 48% of the shots (11 to 12, on target 0-2). No shots on target, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 19% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.