Falkirk v Kilmarnock: analysis and our pick

Kilmarnock have a chance to respond

Falkirk have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Hibernian and a 1–2 home defeat to Dundee. Kilmarnock have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Motherwell and a 1–3 away defeat at Rangers.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 65%. Falkirk score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Kilmarnock 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.6 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Kilmarnock · 45%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Kilmarnock have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Falkirk — last game: Away to Hibernian (2-1) they had 37% of the shots (10 to 17, on target 5-3). From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Kilmarnock — last game: Against Motherwell (3-2) they had 53% of the shots (16 to 14, on target 6-6). From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target. They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.