Eyupspor v Kasimpasa: analysis and our pick

Eyupspor looking for a response

Eyupspor have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Erzurumspor FK and a 0–4 home defeat to Goztepe. Kasimpasa have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Samsunspor and a 1–3 away defeat at Galatasaray.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Eyupspor score 0.0 and concede 3.8 a game, Kasimpasa 1.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.8 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Kasimpasa · 51%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Kasimpasa have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Eyupspor — last game: Away to Erzurumspor FK (0-2) they had 53% of the shots (8 to 7, on target 3-3). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 0% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Kasimpasa — last game: Against Samsunspor (4-1) they had 79% of the shots (22 to 6, on target 8-3). From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.