Estrela v Casa Pia: analysis and our pick

Casa Pia have a chance to respond

Estrela have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Fazendense and a 0–1 away defeat at Arouca. Casa Pia have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Alpendorada and a 0–1 home defeat to Santa Clara.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Estrela score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Casa Pia 0.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.1 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Estrela · 42%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Estrela have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Estrela — last game: Away to Fazendense (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Casa Pia — last game: Away to Alpendorada (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 34% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target. They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.