Dundee Utd v Aberdeen: analysis and our pick
Premiership · Saturday 24 October 17:00 · CalForth Construction Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Aberdeen have a chance to respond
Dundee Utd have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with ST Johnstone and a 1–0 home win over Hibernian. Aberdeen have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over ST Mirren and a 0–1 home defeat to ST Johnstone.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 35%. Dundee Utd score 1.2 and concede 1.0 a game, Aberdeen 2.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.5 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Aberdeen · 44%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 75%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Aberdeen have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Dundee Utd — last game: Away to ST Johnstone (1-1) they had 56% of the shots (14 to 11, on target 7-5). From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 18% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Aberdeen — last game: Against ST Mirren (3-1) they had 57% of the shots (17 to 13, on target 7-7). From 7 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.