Coventry v Fulham: analysis and our pick
Premier League · Saturday 24 October 17:00 · Coventry Building Society Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Coventry looking for a response
Coventry have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Tottenham and a 4–1 home win over Newcastle. Fulham have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Hull City and a 1–2 away defeat at Ipswich.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Coventry score 1.4 and concede 2.4 a game, Fulham 1.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.4 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Fulham · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Fulham have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Coventry — last game: Away to Tottenham (1-3) they had 43% of the shots (12 to 16, on target 1-5). From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Fulham — last game: Against Hull City (1-0) they had 78% of the shots (18 to 5, on target 6-0). From 6 shots on target they scored 1, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Fulham). Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.