Como v Sassuolo: analysis and our pick

Sassuolo have a chance to respond

Como have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Manchester United and a 3–1 away win at Fiorentina. Sassuolo have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–4 away defeat at Frosinone and a 1–1 home draw with AC Milan.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 85%. Como score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Sassuolo 1.8 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.2 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Como · 56%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Como have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Como — last game: Against Manchester United (4-1) they had 46% of the shots (11 to 13, on target 8-4) and 55% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Sassuolo — last game: Away to Frosinone (2-4) they had 40% of the shots (14 to 21, on target 6-10). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 4 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.