Chelsea v Tottenham: analysis and our pick

Chelsea in good form

Chelsea have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Everton and a 5–1 home win over Bournemouth. Tottenham have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Coventry and a 1–1 away draw with Manchester United.

The head-to-head favours Chelsea

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Chelsea, 0 draws, 1 for Tottenham, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Chelsea 1–2 Tottenham (1 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Chelsea score 3.0 and concede 1.8 a game, Tottenham 1.4 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.3 + 1.3 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Chelsea · 58%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 70%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Chelsea have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 70% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Chelsea — last game: Away to Everton (2-0) they had 75% of the shots (18 to 6, on target 7-5). From 7 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Tottenham — last game: Against Coventry (3-1) they had 57% of the shots (16 to 12, on target 5-1). From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Tottenham) 4.75 → 3.80 (-20%, backed) · Double chance X2 2.15 → 1.83 (-14.9%, backed) · 1 (Chelsea) 1.67 → 1.91 (+14.4%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.10 → 3.70 (-9.8%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.