Charlton v Norwich: analysis and our pick

Norwich have a chance to respond

Charlton have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Watford and a 2–2 away draw with Burnley. Norwich have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Portsmouth and a 0–1 home defeat to Southampton.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Charlton score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Norwich 0.8 and 2.6. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.0 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Charlton · 47%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Charlton have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Charlton — last game: Away to Watford (0-2) they had 39% of the shots (14 to 22, on target 3-10). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 36% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target. They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Norwich — last game: Against Portsmouth (0-1) they had 53% of the shots (9 to 8, on target 2-1). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target. They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 54% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.