Cardiff v Birmingham: analysis and our pick
Championship · Saturday 24 October 17:00 · Cardiff City Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Birmingham have a chance to respond
Cardiff have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Middlesbrough and a 5–1 home win over Watford. Birmingham have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over QPR and a 4–0 home win over Preston.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 75%. Cardiff score 2.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Birmingham 2.4 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Cardiff · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Cardiff have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Cardiff — last game: Away to Middlesbrough (2-2) they had 16% of the shots (7 to 36, on target 3-12). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 12 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Cardiff). Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 34% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Birmingham — last game: Against QPR (3-0) they had 48% of the shots (11 to 12, on target 5-4). From 5 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.