Cagliari v Bologna: analysis and our pick

Cagliari in good form

Cagliari have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–4 away defeat at Monza and a 1–1 home draw with Juventus. Bologna have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Inter and a 2–1 away win at Lecce.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 50%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 45%. Cagliari score 1.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Bologna 1.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 0.8 = 1.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Cagliari · 39%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 69%). Most likely score: 0–0.

Why these picks?

Cagliari have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (16%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Cagliari — last game: Away to Monza (0-4) they had 53% of the shots (16 to 14, on target 5-6). From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 4 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 35% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Bologna — last game: Against Inter (1-3) they had 39% of the shots (11 to 17, on target 4-8). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.