Blackburn v Wrexham: analysis and our pick

Blackburn in good form

Blackburn have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at West Brom and a 1–0 away win at Bristol City. Wrexham have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Preston and a 1–2 home defeat to West Brom.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 75%. Blackburn score 2.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Wrexham 1.6 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.2 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Blackburn · 48%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Blackburn have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Blackburn — last game: Away to West Brom (2-3) they had 29% of the shots (10 to 24, on target 2-4). From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Wrexham — last game: Against Preston (4-1) they had 61% of the shots (17 to 11, on target 6-1). From 6 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 46% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.