Barra v Santa Catarina: analysis and our pick

Santa Catarina have a chance to respond

Barra have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Hercílio Luz and a 3–3 home draw with Metropolitano. Santa Catarina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Metropolitano and a 0–3 home defeat to Joinville.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Barra score 1.8 and concede 2.4 a game, Santa Catarina 1.0 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.6 = 3.4 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Barra · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Barra have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Barra — last game: Against Metropolitano (3-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Santa Catarina — last game: Against Joinville (0-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.