Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna: analysis and our pick
La Liga · Saturday 24 October 22:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Atletico Madrid in good form
Atletico Madrid have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with VfB Stuttgart and a 1–0 away win at Espanyol. Deportivo La Coruna have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Levante and a 2–3 away defeat at Real Sociedad.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 70%. Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Deportivo La Coruna 1.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.2 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Atletico Madrid · 53%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Atletico Madrid have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Atletico Madrid — last game: Away to VfB Stuttgart (1-1) they had 37% of the shots (10 to 17, on target 3-5). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Atletico Madrid). Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs, 3 for opponents. Deportivo La Coruna — last game: Against Levante (1-1) they had 54% of the shots (13 to 11, on target 5-4). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 63% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 83% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.