Aston Villa v Manchester City: analysis and our pick
Premier League · Saturday 24 October 14:30 · Villa Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Aston Villa in good form
Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Viking and a 1–0 away win at Newcastle. Manchester City have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–1 home win over AEK Athens and a 3–2 home win over Ipswich.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 60%. Aston Villa score 3.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Manchester City 3.6 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 2.0 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Manchester City · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Manchester City have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Aston Villa — last game: Against Viking (3-1) they had 75% of the shots (21 to 7, on target 10-3) and 55% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 0′–18′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 18′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 23′. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 37′. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 72% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Manchester City — last game: Against AEK Athens (5-1) they had 61% of the shots (17 to 11, on target 7-3). From 7 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.