Arsenal v Everton: analysis and our pick

Arsenal in good form

Arsenal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Bayern Munich and a 1–0 away win at Nottingham Forest. Everton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Chelsea and a 2–2 away draw with Hull City.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Arsenal score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game, Everton 0.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.1 = 2.5 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Arsenal · 45%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Arsenal have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Arsenal — last game: Away to Bayern Munich (2-2) they had 52% of the shots (14 to 13, on target 5-5) and 58% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Everton — last game: Against Chelsea (0-2) they had 25% of the shots (6 to 18, on target 5-7). From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.