Antwerp v Charleroi: analysis and our pick

Antwerp looking for a response

Antwerp have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Heist and a 1–5 away defeat at KVC Westerlo. Charleroi have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Albert Quévy-Mons and a 1–0 away win at Standard Liege.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Antwerp score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game, Charleroi 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.9 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Charleroi · 56%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Charleroi have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Antwerp — last game: Away to KVC Westerlo (1-5) they had 48% of the shots (13 to 14, on target 3-6). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 5 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Antwerp). Over the last 4 they averaged 40% of the shots and 28% of the shots on target. They turn 15% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs. Charleroi — last game: Away to Standard Liege (1-0) they had 41% of the shots (11 to 16, on target 4-2). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Standard Liege). Over the last 4 they averaged 52% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.