Alverca v Arouca: analysis and our pick
Primeira Liga · today 20:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Alverca in good form
Alverca have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Tondela and a 4–1 away win at Famalicao. Arouca have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–3 away win at CF Os Belenenses and a 1–0 home win over Estrela.
An even head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for Alverca, 0 draws, 1 for Arouca, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Alverca 2–1 Arouca (24 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Alverca score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Arouca 1.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.1 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Alverca · 38%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Alverca have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Alverca — last game: Away to Tondela (0-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Arouca — last game: Away to CF Os Belenenses (4-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 57% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.75 → 3.50 (-6.7%, backed) · 2 (Arouca) 3.50 → 3.70 (+5.7%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.85 → 1.95 (+5.4%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.95 → 1.85 (-5.1%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.